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ASML: An $8 Billion Order and Nearly 45% Upside Potential for its Stock
ASML has seen a series of announcements that significantly bolster expectations for further growth. SK hynix announced the purchase of its technologies for nearly $8 billion, management raised its annual revenue outlook to as much as €45 billion, and September announcements from TSMC, Samsung, and Intel bolstered the future of the latest generation of lithography systems. At the same time, analysts’ average price target stands at 2,023.94 EUR. Growing investments in artificial intelligence are thus bringing ASML concrete business opportunities and giving investors reasons to keep an eye on its future results. [1]
About the company
ASML Holding N.V. is a Dutch technology company headquartered in Veldhoven, founded in 1984. It develops and manufactures lithography systems that chip manufacturers use to create extremely small circuit structures on silicon wafers. Its systems are used by TSMC, Samsung, Intel, and SK hynix. ASML employs more than 44,000 people and, in addition to equipment, provides software, service, and upgrades for machines already in operation. Its shares are traded on the Euronext Amsterdam and Nasdaq stock exchanges under the symbol ASML.
Record contract and orders extending through 2028
On March 24, 2026, SK hynix announced the purchase of ASML EUV lithography systems for 11.95 trillion KRW, which was equivalent to $7.97 billion at the time of the announcement. The purchases are scheduled to be completed by December 31, 2027. This is also the largest single order that an ASML customer has publicly disclosed. Furthermore, the significance of the order is supported by broader trends in demand. In July, ASML management stated that it had already secured nearly all the orders needed for its planned EUV shipment volume in 2027 and had also received significant orders for 2028. According to a September report, JPMorgan analysts reported after a meeting with the CFO that ASML is exploring the possibility of producing more than 110 EUV systems in 2028. This is a capacity under review, the realization of which still requires further steps. For investors, however, it is significant that customers are already placing orders today for the technologies needed to expand production in the coming years. [2]
TSMC, Samsung, and Intel support the next generation of technologies
September brought ASML key confirmations from three major chip manufacturers. On September 8, TSMC announced its intention to use High NA EUV technology in the mass production of advanced chips starting in 2030 and, together with ASML, unveiled an initiative to develop larger photomasks. These are intended to increase production productivity and reduce chip costs. On the same day, Samsung expanded its strategic collaboration with ASML and announced plans to introduce High NA EUV into high-volume DRAM production by 2028. On September 7, Intel reported that it had processed more than one million silicon wafers using High NA technology across testing, development, and production of selected layers for some Panther Lake processors. The technology is thus gaining practical manufacturing applications as well as long-term customer support. From an investment perspective, these steps increase the likelihood of broader deployment of new ASML systems and subsequent revenue growth from their sales, service, and upgrades. [3]
Revenue outlook of up to 45 billion EUR confirms accelerating growth
The strength of demand is already reflected in the company’s financial projections. In July, ASML raised its revenue outlook for 2026 to between 43 and 45 billion EUR. The midpoint of this range represents approximately 34.7% growth compared to 2025 revenue of 32.67 billion EUR. For the second quarter, the company reported revenue of 9.33 billion euros and net income of 2.92 billion euros. For the full year, it expects a gross margin of 54 to 56%, which supports the outlook for further profitability growth. Service and upgrades to existing equipment also make a significant contribution, generating €2.76 billion in the second quarter. Management expects this segment to grow by more than 30% in 2026. The growing number of installed systems thus expands opportunities for additional revenue even after their initial sale. ASML can therefore benefit both from the expansion of its customers’ production capacities and from their efforts to increase the performance of the equipment they already operate. [4]
Tens of billions of dollars are flowing into new manufacturing capacity
Further opportunities for ASML are created by the volume of capital that customers plan to invest in chip manufacturing. In July, TSMC increased its investment budget for 2026 to $60–64 billion, with approximately 70–80% earmarked for advanced manufacturing technologies. It is precisely this expansion that is driving demand for sophisticated lithography equipment. In August, SK hynix announced investments exceeding 54 trillion KRW in its new Yongin Y2 and Cheongju M17 factories. The former is intended to support the production of DRAM and HBM memory, while the latter will support NAND production. These are multi-year investments in buildings and infrastructure, with the installation of technology set to continue based on demand. These budgets will be distributed among multiple suppliers and cannot be considered ASML revenue. However, they provide concrete support for the growth thesis. Customers are preparing extensive production capacity, which could generate further orders for manufacturing equipment and, in turn, expand ASML’s service business. [5]
Analysts see potential for nearly 45% growth, and ASML plans share buybacks worth billions
Growth expectations are also reflected in analysts’ valuations. According to data from Investing.com and MarketScreener available on September 17, 2026, the average price target for ASML stock over the next 12 months was 2,023.94 EUR. Compared to the closing price of €1,396.20* on September 16, this represents a potential gain of 44.96% excluding dividends. The highest published target of €2,500 corresponds to approximately 79% growth relative to the same price, while the lowest target of €1,291 anticipates a decline. These figures are analysts’ estimates, and their realization will depend on the company’s results as well as market conditions. ASML itself has also announced a share buyback program of up to 12 billion EUR through the end of 2028. The cancellation of most of the shares repurchased in this manner has the potential to boost earnings per share and increase the remaining shareholders’ stake in the business. This represents a planned use of the company’s equity, though the final volume of buybacks may vary. The combination of growing revenue, strong margins, and capital distributions therefore provides several concrete underpinnings for an optimistic outlook on the stock. [6]
ASML Stock Price Performance Over the Past Five Years*
Conclusion
ASML currently has several concrete factors supporting continued growth. A major order from SK hynix bolsters future shipments, new partnerships are driving the adoption of High NA technology, and the upward revision to the revenue outlook indicates that investments in artificial intelligence are already impacting its business. Further growth in share value will depend on how successfully the company converts orders into shipments and profits. The outcome may be influenced by export restrictions, the timing of customer investments, and the price the market is willing to pay. However, if ASML meets heightened expectations and expands production capacity in line with customer needs, it could create room for further profit growth and long-term value for shareholders. [7]
[1,2,3,4,5,6,7] Forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and current expectations, which may be inaccurate, or on the current economic environment, which is subject to change. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance. They involve risks and other uncertainties that are difficult to predict. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements.
* Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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[1] https://www.asml.com/en/company/about-asml
[7] https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2026/q2-2026-financial-results
[8] https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2026/q4-2025-financial-results
[10] https://news.skhynix.com/en/fab-facility-investment-2026/
[11] https://www.investing.com/equities/asml-holding-consensus-estimates
[12] https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ASML-HOLDING-N-V-12002973/consensus/
[13] https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2026/q4-2025-financial-results